Archive for September, 2009

HURRICANE WATCH

Saturday, September 12th, 2009

Twenty years ago…
On September 11, 1989, Tropical Depression Eight continued to grow more organized, building a large region of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Two hooking spiral bands formed, prompting the National Hurricane Center to upgrade the depression to a tropical storm in their 11 am advisory. The new storm’s name: Hugo. Tropical Storm Hugo continued to trek westward across the open Atlantic at 20 mph, still four days from the Lesser Antilles Islands.

That day at NOAA’s Miami-based Office of Aircraft Operations–the hurricane hunting division of NOAA–we joked about the fearsome new storm with the same name as the director of NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Marine Laboratory (AOML), Hugo Bezdek. AOML housed the offices of NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division, whose scientists would decide whether or not our hurricane hunting group would intercept the new storm once it got close enough to the Lesser Antilles Islands. Even if Hugo was a dud, we figured we’d be flying the storm for sure, since it shared the same first name as the big boss of the hurricane research scientists.

After work that evening, I celebrated my 29th birthday by biking through the sun-dappled shaded streets of Coconut Grove. As I stopped to watch a perfect tropical fuchsia-red sunset, my thoughts roamed out over the eastern horizon. What kind of birthday present had the weather gods delivered me today? I was first on the list of flight meteorologists that would deploy to meet Hugo, should we fly the storm…Jeff Masters (read his blog here)

BOLT AGAIN!

Saturday, September 5th, 2009

Sprint king runs 4th fastest 200m at Brussels Golden League

Sprint king runs 4th fastest 200m at Brussels Golden League

BRUSSELS, Belgium (CMC) - Colossal Jamaican sprinter Usain Bolt emphatically flattened his rivals again as he won the 200 metres in the fourth fastest time ever and meet record 19.57 seconds at the Brussels Golden League meeting yesterday evening.

BRUSSELS, Belgium - Jamaica’s sprint phenomenon Usain Bolt celebrates after winning the 200-metre event at the Golden League Memorial Van Damme athletics meeting here yesterday. (Photo: AP)

Bolt, 23, chopped a massive 0.22 seconds off the previous meet mark of 19.79 seconds by the American Tyson Gay, who suffered a 100-metre defeat to Jamaican Asafa Powell earlier in the meet.

Powell clocked 9.89 seconds for a solid win over Gay, and the Caribbean secured other victories at the year’s last Golden League event through Barbadian Ryan Brathwaite and Jamaican Brigitte Foster-Hylton in the sprint hurdles.

SEPTEMBER STORM

Thursday, September 3rd, 2009

Erika steadily weakening

…Erika weakens to a tropical depression…all warnings discontinued…

Erika steadily weakening
At 5 PM AST…2100 UTC…all tropical storm warnings
associated with Erika have been discontinued.

The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph…19
km/hr. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight…and
this motion is expected to continue until dissipation. On the
forecast track…Erika or its remnants are expected to pass south of
Puerto Rico tonight…and be near or over Hispaniola on Friday.

SEPTEMBER DISTURBANCE

Wednesday, September 2nd, 2009

…Erika moving westward…expected to weaken…

Erika is moving toward the west
Erika is moving toward the west near 9 mph…15 km/hr. A gradual
turn to the west-northwest is expected on Thursday.  On the
forecast track…the weather associated with Erika will continue to
move through the Leeward Islands early Thursday and approach Puerto
Rico late tomorrow.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph…65 km/hr…with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12
hours but a gradual weakening should begin therefater.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles…280 km
to the east of the center.

HURRICANE FORECAST

Tuesday, September 1st, 2009

It is September 2009
It’s September, the most active month for hurricane activity in the Northern Hemisphere. There’s every indication that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will have an active first half of September, since SSTs are 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, wind shear is near average, and the African monsoon is sending a long parade of African waves spinning off the coast of Africa. An IR satellite image from noon today shows this activity well (see Figure).

 five African waves

We can see a line-up of five African waves stretching from the Lesser Antilles to eastern Africa. The GFS model develops the waves numbered “2″ and “3″ into tropical depressions next week, and the waves labeled “1″ and “4″ also have a chance to develop into tropical depressions, as well. The wave labeled “1″ is mentioned on NHC’s Tropical Weather Outlook as having a low (less than 30%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and is over sufficiently warm waters (27 - 28°C) that some development may occur this week. The wave is far enough north that it will be hampered by dry air from the Sahara Desert.