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A Western Caribbean tropical storm coming?In the Atlantic, there have been some modest flare-ups of heavy thunderstorm clusters in the extreme Southwest Caribbean off the coasts of Nicaragua and Panama over the past day. This activity has been too disorganized and limited in extent to prove a threat to develop. However, for the past three days, the ECMWF model has been predicting the eventual development of a tropical storm in this region, sometime during the period October 23 - 25.The GFS and NOGAPS models have also been hinting that conditions may become favorable for tropical storm formation in the Western Caribbean early next week, and we should anticipate the possibility of a late-season tropical storm forming.

The regions most likely to be affected by such a storm would be Honduras, Nicaragua, western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, South Florida, and the Bahamas. Stay tuned. Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Henri Forms

The tropics spawned another October surprise today, when Tropical Storm Henri formed in the face of adverse levels of wind shear…read more.

Twenty years ago on this date.
On September 12, 1989, Tropical Storm Hugo, still far out at sea in the middle Atlantic, continued to grow more organized. Heavy thunderstorms thickened near the storm’s center and in four prominent spiral bands. Updrafts from the intense thunderstorms near the storm’s core began reaching the base of the stratosphere, creating high cirrus clouds that an upper-level anticyclone over the storm carried away. By nightfall, Hugo had intensified to a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Now three days from the Lesser Antilles Islands, the storm continued to churn westward across the open Atlantic at 20 mph. ….read more - by Dr. Jeff Masters (read his blog here)

…and 21 years ago - Hurricane Gilbert

On September 3, 1988, a tropical wave emerged off the African Coast. Over the next several days, a low pressure area slowly developed from this wave, going on to develop an organized circulation center on September 8. Early on September 9 the storm was designated Tropical Depression Twelve, near the Windward Islands about 400 miles (640 km) east of Barbados. It quickly strengthened into Tropical Storm Gilbert that afternoon, becoming the seventh named storm of the season while crossing the Lesser Antilles.

Gilbert approaching Jamaica on September 12, 1988.

With no inhibiting to strengthening, Gilbert quickly became a hurricane late on September 10 and then a major (Category 3) hurricane on the 11 th. It moved consistently west-northwest influenced by a strong high pressure system to its north. This movement led to the hurricane’s first landfall in Jamaica. The eye passed completely over Jamaica on September 12 with 125 mph (205 km/h) winds and a central pressure of 960 mb (28.35 inHg), making it a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.

Twenty years ago…
On September 11, 1989, Tropical Depression Eight continued to grow more organized, building a large region of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Two hooking spiral bands formed, prompting the National Hurricane Center to upgrade the depression to a tropical storm in their 11 am advisory. The new storm’s name: Hugo. Tropical Storm Hugo continued to trek westward across the open Atlantic at 20 mph, still four days from the Lesser Antilles Islands.

That day at NOAA’s Miami-based Office of Aircraft Operations–the hurricane hunting division of NOAA–we joked about the fearsome new storm with the same name as the director of NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Marine Laboratory (AOML), Hugo Bezdek. AOML housed the offices of NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division, whose scientists would decide whether or not our hurricane hunting group would intercept the new storm once it got close enough to the Lesser Antilles Islands. Even if Hugo was a dud, we figured we’d be flying the storm for sure, since it shared the same first name as the big boss of the hurricane research scientists.

After work that evening, I celebrated my 29th birthday by biking through the sun-dappled shaded streets of Coconut Grove. As I stopped to watch a perfect tropical fuchsia-red sunset, my thoughts roamed out over the eastern horizon. What kind of birthday present had the weather gods delivered me today? I was first on the list of flight meteorologists that would deploy to meet Hugo, should we fly the storm…Jeff Masters (read his blog here)

Erika steadily weakening

…Erika weakens to a tropical depression…all warnings discontinued…

At 5 PM AST…2100 UTC…all tropical storm warnings
associated with Erika have been discontinued.

The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph…19
km/hr. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight…and
this motion is expected to continue until dissipation. On the
forecast track…Erika or its remnants are expected to pass south of
Puerto Rico tonight…and be near or over Hispaniola on Friday.

It is September 2009
It’s September, the most active month for hurricane activity in the Northern Hemisphere. There’s every indication that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will have an active first half of September, since SSTs are 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, wind shear is near average, and the African monsoon is sending a long parade of African waves spinning off the coast of Africa. An IR satellite image from noon today shows this activity well (see Figure).

 

We can see a line-up of five African waves stretching from the Lesser Antilles to eastern Africa. The GFS model develops the waves numbered “2″ and “3″ into tropical depressions next week, and the waves labeled “1″ and “4″ also have a chance to develop into tropical depressions, as well. The wave labeled “1″ is mentioned on NHC’s Tropical Weather Outlook as having a low (less than 30%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and is over sufficiently warm waters (27 - 28°C) that some development may occur this week. The wave is far enough north that it will be hampered by dry air from the Sahara Desert.

Please note that an area of tropical disturbance designated by the National
Hurricane Centre as Invest 98 was formed in the Caribbean on Saturday 2008 October 11

Please see the location below.
Time             Lat   Lon    Wind(mph)    Pressure      Storm type
————————————————————-
18 GMT 10/11/08  12.5N  64.9W     20        1006       Invest
00 GMT 10/12/08  13.3N  65.0W     20        1007       Invest

Moving North West at 9 mph.
On this track the storm could cross Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
If it does not die before this then Jamaica could also be affected.

It is still a bit early to be sure so I will keep you informed with another
bulletin on Monday evening.